Only Dodger's fans wouldn't want Yu Darvish Back

It's has been a hot topic all through baseball's hot stove as to whether the Los Angeles Dodgers should sign Yu Darvish to a long term deal.  Darvish, 31, had a strong showing during his brief West Coast relocation, only to watch it all turn sour in the World Series (0-2, 21.60 ERA).

For most Dodger fans, those two appearances have erased any long-term memory of just how strong an arm Darvish has been, all the while pitching in one of the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball (park factor for 2017 was 1.215 courtesy of ESPN.com).  Arlington is the worst ballpark for pitchers in all of baseball, second only to onslaught central, Coors Field in Denver.  In his five years in the major leagues, Darvish has compiled a 56-42 overall record with an ERA just over 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  His K/9 ratio (the number of batters he fans per nine innings is 11.0)  To put things in perspective on that category, Clayton Kershaw, the two-time Dodgers Cy Young winner has a career K/9 of 9.9.  The biggest issue with Darvish is since 2013 he has seen his age rise and playing time diminish due to injury.  His 2014 season was cut short due to elbow tightness and by August he was done after having Tommy John surgery.  He missed all of the 2015 season, and his recovery was slowed in 2016 with right shoulder discomfort and some back issues.

In the end, Darvish is a high-risk, high reward candidate.  One thing that has been a pattern is that pitchers moving from the A.L. to the N.L. often reward those teams with better statistics, mostly the result of facing one less quality hitter in the lineup due to the lack of a designated hitter. Darvish was no different in coming to Los Angeles, exchanging an ERA of 4+ to a 3.44 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The question in whether to reward Darvish with a long-term deal fraught with risk really comes down to who you could replace him with.  Last year Darvish made $11 million and is rumored to be seeking a career-finishing deal, likely five years plus, and would command more like $15-$20 million per year.

Since Japan's Shohei Ohtani has already signed with the Angels (and this is a speculative signing with no guarantee returns certain), the top free agents who fall into Darvish's category would be Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and maybe Lance Lynn. All are crossing 30 years old, and only Arrieta has lived up to the kind of billing.  Last year, he made over $15.5 million and his asking price is likely going to be above twenty.  Lynn comes with all sorts of question marks, though he's been a very serviceable arm for the Cardinals.  Cobb missed two full seasons after his Tommy John surgery, and just set career highs in innings with 179, 29 starts and his 3.66 ERA.  Those aren't exactly beastly numbers for career bests as you tip to the wrong side of thirty.  Cobb's price tag would be much less but unlike Darvish, his FIP (a metric used to judge a pitcher on the true outcomes of baseball, BB, SO, HR and HBP as if fielders weren't out there at all) is half a run higher than his ERA (4.16) for the career year he just finished.

There are other free agents out there, but Doug Fister, Francisco Liriano, Andrew Cashner, and Jeremy Hellickson just don't have the pedigree of someone like Darvish, a guy who can pitch 200 innings when healthy and strikeout more batters than innings pitched while keeping his walks count down.

Take the emotion out of this, Dodgers fans.  Get your head on straight.  You lost in the World Series and Darvish was pretty awful.  Remove those two games though, ones which it is thought that somehow Darvish was tipping his pitches, and there is no better starting pitcher available.  Adding him as the number two or three to a rotation that has Kershaw, an elder but albeit effective Rich Hill and Alex Wood, with the ability to inject spot starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda, make this starting group a formidable one to say the least.  Both of these guys have had an off-season to recover further, and both Ryu's (shoulder) and Maeda's (leg issues) would likely be in most other team's starting rotations.  Assuming this year's World Series is the goal, how else are you going to compete with the New York Yankees, whose offense is starting to resemble some of legendary Yankees batting orders of the past?

You might be able to get a lower priced bargain, and someone like Fister might overperform and repeat his 2014 season for you.  Maybe Hellickson will develop the top ranked prospect the Rays listed him as in 2010 (a K/9 of under six and a walk rate at 2.7 makes this unlikely -- he's a pitch-to-contact guy for life).  Maybe Trevor Cahill will pull himself up the cliff from which he fell and you'll get some innings from him for a stellar price.  But let's be reasonable here. Considering the Dodgers have had the highest payroll in baseball the last three years running, letting the arm of Yu Darvish slip away in a still highly competitive Western Division is a no-brainer.