The last few weeks have seen us enter the final stages of
the Antonio Brown-Pittsburgh Steelers soap opera. Last week’s meeting between Brown and GM
Kevin Colbert yielded an agreement from both sides that it's best to part ways. The Steelers owe Brown a roster bonus of $2.5
million come this March if he's still on the team, which gives impetus for the
Steelers to move quickly. Supposedly three
teams have already contacted the Steelers front office with interest.
Mind you, Antonio Brown is on the record saying his
grievance is not about the money. He claims
he’s made $70 million so this is about the love of the sport. Of course, he followed up by saying he wasn’t
going anywhere without getting guaranteed money, so it’s safe to assume nobody
risks their lives on a football field for simply loving the game anymore, least
of all Antonio Brown.
The question is, just where does Antonio Brown believe he can
go where he'll get both the money he deserves, and the attention he so clearly
craves if not Pittsburgh? If it’s just
about money, it's possible the Steelers aren't willing to pony up a max
contract for a 31-year-old wide receiver, but it's not because he's not valued
by an offense that revolves around him.
If it’s about the recognition Brown believes he's not
getting, what team has ever chosen a wide receiver's talent over that of the
star quarterback? No wide receiver can
survive the NFL without a great arm delivering him the ball. So where is Brown to go?
I looked back over NFL team offenses to identify what is the best offense for a wide receiver. It would have to be one that is strong offensively, meaning they are on the field a large percentage of the game. It would also need to be a pass-first offense, which require a strong quarterback. Numerically, this crude new number I'll call WR OPPORTUNITY. This number reflects the current state of the offenses as the 2018-2019 season ended.
I looked back over NFL team offenses to identify what is the best offense for a wide receiver. It would have to be one that is strong offensively, meaning they are on the field a large percentage of the game. It would also need to be a pass-first offense, which require a strong quarterback. Numerically, this crude new number I'll call WR OPPORTUNITY. This number reflects the current state of the offenses as the 2018-2019 season ended.
I started by looking at which offenses ranked highest over
the past five seasons in total offensive yards, meaning they’re either a) very
efficient at gaining yardage when they’re on the field or b) they’re a big play
offense that gain chunks of yardage whenever they’re in action. The more yards an offense gains, the more
likely they have more plays and more time on the field. Second, the number of pass attempts; the more
passes in the air means more balls to catch.
Lastly, how many passing yards is that team achieving. A high number of passing attempts without resulting
yards might suggest you have a quarterback who is going to throw a lot but
isn’t connecting. The reason for
choosing five seasons is that it provides a large enough sample to identify trends
in either direction. Scores are not weighted, but in this crude system, the
best WR Opportunity Score (OPP) is 15 -- five seasons, three categories each,
with a point for an appearance in the top ten of each one. Naturally, if you have consistency many
seasons in a row it matters.
Here is the research:
ATT
|
PYDS
|
TYDS
|
ATT
|
PYDS
|
TYDS
|
ATT
|
PYDS
|
TYDS
|
|||
1
|
IND
|
IND
|
NOR
|
BAL
|
NOR
|
ARI
|
BAL
|
NOR
|
NOR
|
||
2
|
NOR
|
PIT
|
PIT
|
NOR
|
ARI
|
NOR
|
NOR
|
WSH
|
ATL
|
||
3
|
ATL
|
NOR
|
IND
|
LAC
|
PIT
|
PIT
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
WSH
|
||
4
|
OAK
|
DEN
|
DEN
|
DET
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
JAX
|
NE
|
NE
|
||
5
|
PHI
|
ATL
|
PHI
|
NE
|
NE
|
TB
|
GB
|
IND
|
DAL
|
||
6
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
GB
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
||
7
|
NE
|
NYG
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
WSH
|
GB
|
PIT
|
||
8
|
CHI
|
GB
|
ATL
|
ATL
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
GB
|
||
9
|
DEN
|
NE
|
SEA
|
HOU
|
DET
|
LAC
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
ARI
|
||
10
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
NYG
|
IND
|
JAX
|
NYJ
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
IND
|
2017 2018
ATT
|
PYDS
|
TYDS
|
ATT
|
PYDS
|
TYDS
|
||
1
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
NE
|
PIT
|
TB
|
KC
|
|
2
|
SF
|
NE
|
NOR
|
IND
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
|
3
|
TB
|
PIT
|
PIT
|
GB
|
KC
|
TB
|
|
4
|
MIA
|
TB
|
LAC
|
TB
|
ATL
|
PIT
|
|
5
|
ARI
|
NOR
|
KC
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
NE
|
|
6
|
PIT
|
DET
|
JAX
|
MIN
|
IND
|
ATL
|
|
7
|
NE
|
KC
|
PHI
|
PHI
|
PHI
|
IND
|
|
8
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
NOR
|
|
9
|
CLE
|
SF
|
TB
|
KC
|
LAC
|
BAL
|
|
10
|
DET
|
LAR
|
LAR
|
NYG
|
NOR
|
CAR
|
Is a passing offense a trend or simply a blip on the radar? The Atlanta Falcons with Matt Ryan under
center have an OPP score of 13, meaning that they have been among the most
consistent passing offenses for this five-year period. Some credit goes to having a player like
Julio Jones on the receiving end of those passes, (Roddy White in two of those
seasons). But if the quarterback isn't
accurate, the attempts can be very high, but the yardage won't. Those
complaining that Ryan isn't living up to his contract should note he completed
nearly 70% of his attempts, had the fifth highest number of attempts in 2018
along with a 35 TD/ 7 INT ratio.
Now, take a look at the New York Giants. They appear nine times. However, the last two seasons showed a huge
problem with their offense. Eli Manning
& Co. were number one in attempts in 2017 and number ten in 2018, so
they're hurling the rock a lot. Yet,
they show up nowhere in the pass yards or total offensive yards
categories. This suggests that Manning is
either losing accuracy, or more likely, that he is constantly under pressure
due to a porous offensive line and can't deliver those attempts. Notice the Giants are not ranking top ten in
total offensive yards either, which means they aren't running much better.
Carolina appears just once, but it's for total offensive yards. They run a lot, many times with Cam Newton toting the ball himself. It's an offensive philosophy, which may or may not reflect on how often they want Newton throwing the football, or their trust in their receiving corps. Either way, Carolina is just not a high-powered passing offense.
We can also spot some clear trends emerging. The Kansas Chiefs appear five times in the last two seasons. This can be most likely attributed to the changes made under Andy Reid, including the arrivals of Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and now Patrick Mahomes. They appear to be an offense on the rise, as do the Los Angeles Rams, who also appear four times in the last two seasons, and both in passing yards and total yards. While they aren't attempting as many throws, Jeff Goff's completed passes are gaining large chunks of yardage in a balanced offense.
Now look at the Steelers. Over the past five seasons, from
2014-2018, Pittsburgh has been in the top ten in all three of these categories
except for 2015. In that season, the
Steelers fell outside of the top ten teams in the league for passing attempts,
yet their total passing yards and total offense yards ranked fourth overall. This yields their offense an OPP 14 score. So not only has Pittsburgh completely morphed
into a pass-first offense, but Antonio Brown has led that offense with no less
than 150 targets in each of those five seasons.
He's had no less than 1,250 yards and nine touchdowns during that run as
well.
Essentially, Antonio Brown just argued his way off of the team that likely gives him the greatest opportunity to not only win now, but to provide him the opportunity and statistics to go down in history as one of the greatest receivers ever, even with the arrival of Juju Smith-Schuster.
Not surprisingly, both New Orleans and New England have OPP scores above ten (13 and 11 respectively), but both have aging quarterbacks and great receivers. Julian Edelman just won the MVP for the Super Bowl. Michael Thomas is a perennial top wide receiver, not to mention the fact New Orleans is running the ball a lot more on the backs of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. In both cases, Brown cannot expect the same opportunity in terms of targets here. New England is usually looking for value signings in the off-season, which often involve one-year rejuvenation projects (see Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, etc.). Neither seem likely to give Brown a multi-year max deal.
Essentially, Antonio Brown just argued his way off of the team that likely gives him the greatest opportunity to not only win now, but to provide him the opportunity and statistics to go down in history as one of the greatest receivers ever, even with the arrival of Juju Smith-Schuster.
Not surprisingly, both New Orleans and New England have OPP scores above ten (13 and 11 respectively), but both have aging quarterbacks and great receivers. Julian Edelman just won the MVP for the Super Bowl. Michael Thomas is a perennial top wide receiver, not to mention the fact New Orleans is running the ball a lot more on the backs of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. In both cases, Brown cannot expect the same opportunity in terms of targets here. New England is usually looking for value signings in the off-season, which often involve one-year rejuvenation projects (see Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, etc.). Neither seem likely to give Brown a multi-year max deal.
Green Bay surprisingly scores and OPP 7, reflecting inconsistency with injuries to Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, and now this past year, the loss of consistent receiver Jordy Nelson. Again, are the Packers going to pony up millions for a 31-year-old receiver in 2019? Doesn't seem likely with their lack of cap space.
The Rams and Chargers are possibilities due to the large
market they are in, and both have strong quarterbacks, but both have limited
cap space this off-season, not to mention the Rams went to the Super Bowl without
Brown. If Cooper Kupp is back and
healthy, would he be enough of a push to warrant a return visit?
If Brown is looking for more recognition of his talent AND
wishes to get the kind of money he's demanding he's going to have to seek and
up-and-coming franchise with a younger quarterback that has the cap room for
him. This could be one of Cleveland
Browns, the Houston Texans, the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas
City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo's appearance in San Francisco lifted the
49ers to new highs in 2017 for attempts and passing yards, accounting for their
only appearances in the top ten. The
drop-off in 2018 reflects injuries to both Garoppolo and C. J. Beathard. The Jets have Sam Darnold, Buffalo has Josh
Allen and Cleveland has Baker Mayfield. Moving
to these franchises makes sense seeing they have signed what they believe to be
young franchise quarterbacks, but this is not likely to yield the statistics
Brown would like, nor is this team suddenly going to win enough games to be
heavy playoff contenders. It's possible
he'll assist in a few more wins a year, but a Super Bowl run?
Perhaps the best of both worlds are Kansas City or Houston, but
those teams are clearly in the hands of Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson. Brown will no doubt play second fiddle to
those two just like he does to Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.
It would appear the real problem with Antonio Brown's
situation is Antonio Brown. Whatever
perception he has of playing second fiddle in a system that favors Ben
Roethlisberger will be the same in any system with a veteran quarterback who
has a shot of winning right now. For
those with young quarterbacks, Brown might initially find the recognition he
craves, but the likelihood he'll rise to the same level of play or have a deep
playoff run is tampered.
There are very few opportunities for Brown to continue his success at the same level as he has in Pittsburgh, In this case, Antonio Brown may look back a year from now and regret that he got what he wished for.
There are very few opportunities for Brown to continue his success at the same level as he has in Pittsburgh, In this case, Antonio Brown may look back a year from now and regret that he got what he wished for.
No comments:
Post a Comment