Wednesday, February 27, 2019

WHERE OPPORTUNITY LIES FOR ANTONIO BROWN

The last few weeks have seen us enter the final stages of the Antonio Brown-Pittsburgh Steelers soap opera.  Last week’s meeting between Brown and GM Kevin Colbert yielded an agreement from both sides that it's best to part ways.  The Steelers owe Brown a roster bonus of $2.5 million come this March if he's still on the team, which gives impetus for the Steelers to move quickly.  Supposedly three teams have already contacted the Steelers front office with interest.

Mind you, Antonio Brown is on the record saying his grievance is not about the money.  He claims he’s made $70 million so this is about the love of the sport.  Of course, he followed up by saying he wasn’t going anywhere without getting guaranteed money, so it’s safe to assume nobody risks their lives on a football field for simply loving the game anymore, least of all Antonio Brown.

The question is, just where does Antonio Brown believe he can go where he'll get both the money he deserves, and the attention he so clearly craves if not Pittsburgh?  If it’s just about money, it's possible the Steelers aren't willing to pony up a max contract for a 31-year-old wide receiver, but it's not because he's not valued by an offense that revolves around him.

If it’s about the recognition Brown believes he's not getting, what team has ever chosen a wide receiver's talent over that of the star quarterback?  No wide receiver can survive the NFL without a great arm delivering him the ball.  So where is Brown to go?

I looked back over NFL team offenses to identify what is the best offense for a wide receiver.  It would have to be one that is strong offensively, meaning they are on the field a large percentage of the game.  It would also need to be a pass-first offense, which require a strong quarterback.  Numerically, this crude new number I'll call WR OPPORTUNITY.  This number reflects the current state of the offenses as the 2018-2019 season ended.

I started by looking at which offenses ranked highest over the past five seasons in total offensive yards, meaning they’re either a) very efficient at gaining yardage when they’re on the field or b) they’re a big play offense that gain chunks of yardage whenever they’re in action.  The more yards an offense gains, the more likely they have more plays and more time on the field.  Second, the number of pass attempts; the more passes in the air means more balls to catch.  Lastly, how many passing yards is that team achieving.  A high number of passing attempts without resulting yards might suggest you have a quarterback who is going to throw a lot but isn’t connecting.  The reason for choosing five seasons is that it provides a large enough sample to identify trends in either direction. Scores are not weighted, but in this crude system, the best WR Opportunity Score (OPP) is 15 -- five seasons, three categories each, with a point for an appearance in the top ten of each one.  Naturally, if you have consistency many seasons in a row it matters. 


Here is the research:

ATT
PYDS
TYDS

ATT
PYDS
TYDS

ATT
PYDS
TYDS
1
IND
IND
NOR

BAL
NOR
ARI

BAL
NOR
NOR
2
NOR
PIT
PIT

NOR
ARI
NOR

NOR
WSH
ATL
3
ATL
NOR
IND

LAC
PIT
PIT

ARI
ATL
WSH
4
OAK
DEN
DEN

DET
LAC
SEA

JAX
NE
NE
5
PHI
ATL
PHI

NE
NE
TB

GB
IND
DAL
6
PIT
PHI
GB

NYG
ATL
NE

PHI
PIT
OAK
7
NE
NYG
DAL

PHI
NYG
ATL

WSH
GB
PIT
8
CHI
GB
ATL

ATL
BAL
NYG

NYG
LAC
GB
9
DEN
NE
SEA

HOU
DET
LAC

OAK
ARI
ARI
10
NYG
LAC
NYG

IND
JAX
NYJ

PIT
SEA
IND

2017                                                                       2018

ATT
PYDS
TYDS

ATT
PYDS
TYDS
1
NYG
LAC
NE

PIT
TB
KC
2
SF
NE
NOR

IND
PIT
LAR
3
TB
PIT
PIT

GB
KC
TB
4
MIA
TB
LAC

TB
ATL
PIT
5
ARI
NOR
KC

ATL
LAR
NE
6
PIT
DET
JAX

MIN
IND
ATL
7
NE
KC
PHI

PHI
PHI
IND
8
LAC
ATL
ATL

DEN
GB
NOR
9
CLE
SF
TB

KC
LAC
BAL
10
DET
LAR
LAR

NYG
NOR
CAR

Is a passing offense a trend or simply a blip on the radar?  The Atlanta Falcons with Matt Ryan under center have an OPP score of 13, meaning that they have been among the most consistent passing offenses for this five-year period.  Some credit goes to having a player like Julio Jones on the receiving end of those passes, (Roddy White in two of those seasons).  But if the quarterback isn't accurate, the attempts can be very high, but the yardage won't. Those complaining that Ryan isn't living up to his contract should note he completed nearly 70% of his attempts, had the fifth highest number of attempts in 2018 along with a 35 TD/ 7 INT ratio. 

Now, take a look at the New York Giants.  They appear nine times.  However, the last two seasons showed a huge problem with their offense.  Eli Manning & Co. were number one in attempts in 2017 and number ten in 2018, so they're hurling the rock a lot.  Yet, they show up nowhere in the pass yards or total offensive yards categories.  This suggests that Manning is either losing accuracy, or more likely, that he is constantly under pressure due to a porous offensive line and can't deliver those attempts.  Notice the Giants are not ranking top ten in total offensive yards either, which means they aren't running much better. 

Carolina appears just once, but it's for total offensive yards. They run a lot, many times with Cam Newton toting the ball himself.  It's an offensive philosophy, which may or may not reflect on how often they want Newton throwing the football, or their trust in their receiving corps.  Either way, Carolina is just not a high-powered passing offense. 

We can also spot some clear trends emerging.  The Kansas Chiefs appear five times in the last two seasons.  This can be most likely attributed to the changes made under Andy Reid, including the arrivals of Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and now Patrick Mahomes.  They appear to be an offense on the rise, as do the Los Angeles Rams, who also appear four times in the last two seasons, and both in passing yards and total yards.  While they aren't attempting as many throws, Jeff Goff's completed passes are gaining large chunks of yardage in a balanced offense.

Now look at the Steelers. Over the past five seasons, from 2014-2018, Pittsburgh has been in the top ten in all three of these categories except for 2015.  In that season, the Steelers fell outside of the top ten teams in the league for passing attempts, yet their total passing yards and total offense yards ranked fourth overall.  This yields their offense an OPP 14 score.  So not only has Pittsburgh completely morphed into a pass-first offense, but Antonio Brown has led that offense with no less than 150 targets in each of those five seasons.  He's had no less than 1,250 yards and nine touchdowns during that run as well. 

Essentially, Antonio Brown just argued his way off of the team that likely gives him the greatest opportunity to not only win now, but to provide him the opportunity and statistics to go down in history as one of the greatest receivers ever, even with the arrival of Juju Smith-Schuster.

Not surprisingly, both New Orleans and New England have OPP scores above ten (13 and 11 respectively), but both have aging quarterbacks and great receivers.  Julian Edelman just won the MVP for the Super Bowl.  Michael Thomas is a perennial top wide receiver, not to mention the fact New Orleans is running the ball a lot more on the backs of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.  In both cases, Brown cannot expect the same opportunity in terms of targets here.  New England is usually looking for value signings in the off-season, which often involve one-year rejuvenation projects (see Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, etc.).  Neither seem likely to give Brown a multi-year max deal. 

Green Bay surprisingly scores and OPP 7, reflecting inconsistency with injuries to Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, and now this past year, the loss of consistent receiver Jordy Nelson.  Again, are the Packers going to pony up millions for a 31-year-old receiver in 2019?  Doesn't seem likely with their lack of cap space.

The Rams and Chargers are possibilities due to the large market they are in, and both have strong quarterbacks, but both have limited cap space this off-season, not to mention the Rams went to the Super Bowl without Brown.  If Cooper Kupp is back and healthy, would he be enough of a push to warrant a return visit? 

If Brown is looking for more recognition of his talent AND wishes to get the kind of money he's demanding he's going to have to seek and up-and-coming franchise with a younger quarterback that has the cap room for him.  This could be one of Cleveland Browns, the Houston Texans, the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs or the San Francisco 49ers.

Jimmy Garoppolo's appearance in San Francisco lifted the 49ers to new highs in 2017 for attempts and passing yards, accounting for their only appearances in the top ten.  The drop-off in 2018 reflects injuries to both Garoppolo and C. J. Beathard.  The Jets have Sam Darnold, Buffalo has Josh Allen and Cleveland has Baker Mayfield.  Moving to these franchises makes sense seeing they have signed what they believe to be young franchise quarterbacks, but this is not likely to yield the statistics Brown would like, nor is this team suddenly going to win enough games to be heavy playoff contenders.  It's possible he'll assist in a few more wins a year, but a Super Bowl run?

Perhaps the best of both worlds are Kansas City or Houston, but those teams are clearly in the hands of Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson.  Brown will no doubt play second fiddle to those two just like he does to Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

It would appear the real problem with Antonio Brown's situation is Antonio Brown.  Whatever perception he has of playing second fiddle in a system that favors Ben Roethlisberger will be the same in any system with a veteran quarterback who has a shot of winning right now.  For those with young quarterbacks, Brown might initially find the recognition he craves, but the likelihood he'll rise to the same level of play or have a deep playoff run is tampered.

There are very few opportunities for Brown to continue his success at the same level as he has in Pittsburgh,  In this case, Antonio Brown may look back a year from now and regret that he got what he wished for.

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